Oakland Sucks

Guest Post: Ron Oz

2011-02-09T04:04:00.000-08:00

Personality or Results?

Ok, can we all just stipulate that our Police Chief is popular in many of our communities? He walks and talks a magnificent image. He has our Mayor sending him a Valentine card with promises to do anything to get him to stay as Oakland's boyfriend. It is an unpopular thing to dare interupt a community's adoration, but someone has to ask, "What is he doing about public safety in Oakland?"

He has indicated that he is in Oakland for emotional reasons, reluctantly, after attending the funeral of four of our officers, and that we're lucky to have him. After all, his resume is full of achievements, including a claim to have tamed crime in Long Beach during his seven years as Chief there. He has demonstrated that Oakland isn't good enough for him, as he violated OPD's own rule for truthfulness by denying courting our next door neighbor for a new relationship there.

Well, he's been in place as Oakland's Police Chief for sixteen months now. He started the job with an outside consultant whom he charged with finding out what's going on at OPD and in Oakland, and what he can do as Police Chief here. Never mind that he was the one hired as the expert, with his PhD and all. From day one he stated the obvious, that the OPD was "broken and dysfunctional." Now, after sixteen months he recently said OPD is "broken and dysfunctional." So what has been done in the meantime and where is public safety now?

Mayor Dellums announced on August 5, 2009, 552 days ago, that Anthony Batts was to be Oakland's next Police Chief. Chief Batts said that he wanted to be the Oakland Police Chief after the deadly shooting of four of our officers 689 days ago. The Mayor said Chief Batts, in his years at the helm of Long Beach, 2002 - 2009, had reduced crime there to the lowest level since 1975. So allright, in politics it's ok to exaggerate a little. Also, in politics it's all about looking good. Perhaps if Oakland had been more concerned about doing good than looking good they might have had better luck in selecting their last four Police Chiefs.

A little better background investigation on Batts might have been in order. The Long Beach Post reported on June 12, 2009, "The first half of 2009 has been a long six months for the Long Beach Police Department and its head honcho: Chief Anthony W. Batts. Gang violence is on the rise, and the department has drawn attention for its nine officer-involved shootings since January. Chief Batts now faces his toughest challenge in his 27 year career on the force as a troubled economy drives the City's crime rate to its highest point in years. The department also faces possible budget cuts on a scale never before seen." Hmmmm...

As for Long Beach crimes, there is little to compare with Oakland because our violence is off the charts. So let's just look at Long Beach and Chief Batts' impact on violent crimes there...the same that we might expect to consider during his Oakland application process. Looking at the FBI UCR stats, it seems that Chief Batts' predecessors had reduced violent crimes by -55% from the end of 1993 to the end of 2001, and those crimes went down seven years in a row before Batts was appointed Chief. After Batts was appointed Chief, the violent crimes rose five years and declined three. Compared with 2000, the Chief Batts years saw violent crimes higher for six years and lower for two. Since 2000 until nine years later when Batts left Long Beach the violent crimes were down a mere -1.7%; this compares with San Jose down -30% and Los Angeles down -52% in the same period. Murders seem to draw the most notoriety and it was claimed that Batts reduced the homicide rate dramatically in Long Beach. Well, in 2001, the year before Batts became Chief, there were 49 homicides in Long Beach, and when he left there were 40.... a reduction of 9. That's hardly a blip on the Oakland scale where in barely over a month there have been 12 murders this year already.

So what has Chief Batts done for us lately? Well, after a year on the job he presented a Strategic Plan "Working Draft." A whole year? Really? It spent a lot of pages telling us we had high rates of violent crimes and our cops were overworked. Nothing new. Then on page 8 it introduced us to "Priority Actions." Wonderful. By page 41 the document proposed around 150 Priority Actions. Unfortunately, the "plan" didn't present anything actionable. The Priority Actions were standard generic fare for any police department. San Jose could have used the same plan. The problem is that the document stated what was needed, but not how any of the Priority Actions would be accomplished, at what measurable pace, or when. There were no specific metrics at all. Take a look, and ask any consultant or panel to review the Chief's progress on his "Priority Actions." If we don't adequately screen our Chiefs as applicants, then perhaps we could at least grade their progress.

Although there is no transparency whatsoever; there are rumors abounding on OPD that Chief Batts intends to engage in a major shift back to 5/8 "watches" and to abandon Area Commands in July. Hopefully there is a definitive plan, and not a wholesale move of deck furniture on the Titanic as when Tucker went to his version of 3/12's and Area Command.

Ok, so where is Oakland after Chief Batts got here in 2009? Not good. It is still essentially Chief Tucker's disconnected and inefficient police department. The latest week's figures show a crisis pandemic of violence. Yes, a crisis. Homicides are up +140% for this year compared with last, shootings are up +51%, residential robberies are up +31%, car jackings are up +100%. These are not misprints. It is sad and devious to portray crimes as going down in Oakland. A burglary is counted in the overall crime rate with the same weight as a homicide. A theft is counted with the same weight as a robbery with a gun. In other words, as Oakland's violence is up alarmingly, the Chief and the Mayor are able to claim a victory because burglaries and thefts are down and there are lots more of them. In fact, to put frosting on a bad taste, they can report that as of a few days ago [2/6] the "serious" Part 1 crimes were down -5% and Part 2 crimes were down a whopping -43%.

But lets look at these Part 1 and Part 2 crimes that mask our violence. The latest numbers show that we have had 756 burglaries this year compared with 873 last year at this time and 536 larcenies compared with 608. Do we really believe these numbers? Do we have a hint that they are grossly under-reported? Nevertheless, because there are more property crimes than violent crimes in the Part 1 category, and they all carry the same weight, the Part 1 crime rate in Oakland is indeed down -5% thus far.

While on the one hand it is reported that drugs are a serious problem responsible for many violent crimes, the reports of "Drug Possession and Sales" are considered Part 2 crimes. They are down to 200 from 487 last year at this time. This number is simply not believable, yet Oakland and OPD can claim that the category "Drug Possession and Sales" is down -59%. Similarly, look at the Part 2 reports for "Weapons - Possession and Carrying." They are supposedly down -40%, from 80 last year at this time to 48 this year. Yet, Homicides are up +140% and Aggravated Assaults with Firearms are up +51%. How can drug activity and weapons possessions be down? It isn't the numbers that are lying. It's how they are presented.

So there you have it. We have a Strategic Plan, that isn't. We have a crisis in violence and a reporting system that says all is good, and it isn't. We have a Police Chief who would rather be somewhere else, and isn't.

ronoz

ps. Chief Batts, if you're reading this, I'm not the enemy. I would be pleased to help you in any way I can, as I wish only to see public safety in Oakland improve. That means we should all help you succeed as Police Chief in Oakland. Oakland needs and deserves success in public safety. Oakland has everything going for it geographically, demographically, and potentially economically... except that it is the most violent city in California.

Death Count

2011-02-07T01:48:00.000-08:00

It would appear that the local news media has found other things to write about than Oakland's murders. So getting up-to-date info on when and where someone was killed is looking to be problematic. Thankfully, The Oakland Tribune is helping to keep count: So far this year there have been 15 homicides, and because one of those homicides happened on New Years Day, Jean Quan doesn't actually have to take ownership of that one (although, if she did have any pride in her job, she would claim that homicide).

Quan's Death Count: 14
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 146 [Revised from 152.08]

[One man killed, three injured in Oakland shootings]

Russo v. Siegel

2011-01-30T03:12:00.000-08:00

Looks like John Russo is getting the message out that Daniel M. Siegel is not legal council for Jean Quan. Anyone that subscribes to the City Attorney's newsletter received this email.

January 2011

Oakland City Attorney's Office Newsletter

Legal Briefs

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About Us

Op-ed of the Week

Greetings!

In the last week, there has been a lot of noise about a "turf war" between myself and Mayor Quan. The way it has played in the media, the mayor and I are "trading barbs" in some kind of political battle of wills.

I'm writing to tell you that this debate is not personal, and it has nothing to do with "turf." It does, however, have real consequences for how our city government functions under this administration.

Here's the brief story:

Last week, I wrote to Mayor Quan to advise that her appointment of a "legal advisor" to the mayor's office violates the spirit and the letter of the separation of powers set up by voters in the Oakland City Charter.

The mayor is correct that she has an absolute right to ask anyone for advice. But under our charter, no one can act as an official attorney for the mayor (or any city officer) outside of the City Attorney's Office. Not only does this create serious liability for the taxpayers and confusion for city department heads - it also takes power away from Oakland voters, who elect an independent City Attorney to give impartial advice and act as a check on the executive and legislative branches.

Legal opinions about these matters are always open to the public, and we usually post them on our web site on the same day they are delivered (as we did in this case).

In the interest of explaining this complex issue outside of the context of the media shouting match, I am including this link to our legal opinion and to the Tribune's editorial on the subject. As always, I look forward to your comments and feedback, and to a continued healthy debate about issues affecting the course of our city.

Sincerely,

John Russo, City Attorney

Tribune Editorial

Friday, January 28, 2011

READ THE FULL OP-ED

Back To Normal

2011-01-28T02:14:00.000-08:00

Looks like things didn't work out for Anthony Batts and his transfer to the San Jose Police Department [looks like we were wrong when we wrote that he basically had the job]. This has got to be an extremely awkward moment for the guy: He announced that he's basically got the job, and then suddenly tells everyone he doesn't have the job. And, to top this off, a recently published article on SFGate by Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross states that the patrol officers of OPD never liked Batts in the first place:

"There's one group that won't be shedding any tears if Oakland's charismatic police chief, Anthony Batts, heads elsewhere - the cops themselves.

'Showboat,' 'overrated' and 'in it just for himself' are among the more common descriptions you hear when you talk with beat cops about Batts.

The general feeling among the rank and file is that for all his crowd-pleasing rhetoric about being committed to the city and wanting to "heal" the department, Batts has viewed Oakland as a stepping-stone.

'There never was a real plan, but what he was good at was throwing out sound bites like, "We're going to fight guns, gangs and drugs," ' said one patrol sergeant, who like all the beat cops we spoke to asked not to be named for fear of retribution."

Things are going to be really interesting:

Is anyone at OPD going to listen to Anthony anymore? After all, he did just alienate his staff. Are they going to go out of their way to help the guy out? Or is Batts basically going to get the cold shoulder from his subordinates?

And, what about the City Council? Are they going to have their feelings hurt because he almost left their great dysfunctional creation? Or will everyone just kiss and make-up and pretend like nothing happened?

San Francisco doesn't have a chief of police, so is Edwin Lee going to recruit Batts to run SFPD?

As a side note, we still don't find fault with Anthony Batts wanting to leaving OPD, after all, the Oakland City Council gave him no support what so ever. But, because Anthony indicated his willingness to leave OPD, we strongly suggest that he issue his letter of resignation: If you wanna leave bro, just leave.

[San Jose doesn't hire Oakland Chief Anthony Batts]
[If Anthony Batts leaves Oakland, cops won't cry]

Jean Quan Is An Idiot

2011-01-27T04:43:00.000-08:00

Jean Quan has clearly not read this blog yet; if she did, she would realize that she really just needs to keep her mouth shut because every time she opens it she sounds like a complete idiot. What we are referring to of course is the fight that she decided to pick with the Oakland City Attorney John Russo when she thought it would be just a wonderful idea to side-step Russo to get her own legal advise from her so-far-left-he-left-the-country lawyer pal Daniel M. Siegel. Remember, Danny Boy is suing the city to stop a gang injunction; oh sorry, our mistake, his son, Michael Siegel, who works at the same law firm as his dad, is suing the city to stop a gang injunction.

As we stated in a previous article, "Siegel legally cannot represent the Mayor's office. The Oakland City Attorney, John Russo, is the only entity that can provide legal council to Mayor Quan." After we made that statement, the following day John Russo posted a letter to Jean Quan on the Attorney's website stating basically what we had already said, that she cannot use Siegel as a way to sidestep the City Attorney [seriously, read the letter, John Russo basically puts the smack down on Jean].

So what's Jean Quan's reaction? To get indignant about the whole thing. According to the Oakland Tribune, "Quan said Russo had created a conflict of interest by releasing his advice to the media when he did." WTF?!!@?!11#?$ Is Jean Quan that fucking stupid? Jean and her spokeswoman Susan Piper couldn't shut the fuck up to the media about how Daniel M. Siegel is going to be Jean's lawyer and represent the Mayor's office. And now Jean is going to cry foul because someone challenged her blatant violation of the City Charter publicly? This is what we're talking about when we say she sounds like a complete idiot.

Then, in another article published published by the Oakland Tribune with respect to the Russo, Quan, Siegel, gang injunction/legal representation issues, the Tribune states the following:

"The mayor is the boss of the chief of police, and can give orders about how to use department personnel. Beyond that, asked what her authority is or could be over the injunctions, Quan said, 'I don't honestly know. But if I can only ask (Russo), that's problematic.'"

There are two very troubling issues with the above. The first is that Jean Quan is flat out saying that she doesn't want a gang injunction to happen. The fact that she states that relying on the City Attorney is a problem with respect to a gang injunction clearly shows that Quan is absolutely pro drug dealing and violence. The second problem is the statement that "The mayor is the boss of the chief of police...". Really? Where on earth did this "fact" come from? Did Quan say this and Sean Maher of the Tribune use it as reality? Because last time we checked Article III of The Charter of The City of Oakland, there was no mention of the Mayor being the chief of police:

The Mayor shall have the following powers, duties, and responsibilities:
(a)   The Mayor shall be responsible for the submission of an annual budget to the Council which shall be prepared by the City Administrator under the direction of the Mayor and Council. The Mayor shall, at the time of the submission of the budget, submit a general statement of the conditions of the affairs of the City, the goals of the administration, and recommendations of such measures as he may deem expedient and proper to accomplish such goals.
(b)   Recommend to the Council such measures and legislation as he deems necessary and to make such other recommendations to the Council concerning the affairs of the City as he finds desirable.
(c)   Encourage programs for the physical, economic, social and cultural development of the City.
(d)   Actively promote economic development to broaden and strengthen the commercial and employment base of the City.
(e)    Appoint the City Administrator, subject to confirmation by the City Council, remove the City Administrator and give direction to the City Administrator. The Mayor shall advise the Council before removing the City Administrator.
(f)   Serve as ceremonial head of the City.
(g)   Represent the City in inter-governmental relations as directed by the Council.
(h)   Provide community leadership.

And just to save everyone some time, we read over the section regarding the City Administrator, and there is no mention that the City Administrator has power over the chief of police.

Jean Quan clearly is in over her head as to how Oakland works. Maybe if Jean didn't drop out of U.C. Berkeley she'd understand that she's not the Dowager Cixi; but rather a very minor player in Oakland politics.

Pro-Tip: Jean read the fucking City Charter to understand your role.

Death Count

2011-01-27T03:12:00.000-08:00

Really no comment required anymore.

Quan's Death Count: 10
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 152.08 [Revised from 149.31]

[SEIU union official found dead in Oakland home]

A Fabulous Vacation Wonderland

2011-01-25T05:40:00.000-08:00

Yeah we know this is an "old" video about The Oakland. But, we thought we'd post it anyway, only because every time we watch it we get a chuckle.

Death Count

2011-01-25T00:40:00.000-08:00

We thought Oakland was going to get through last weekend without another killing, but we were wrong. One of the contributors of Oakland Sucks caught an article in the Oakland Tribune that a man was beaten to death in West Oakland on Sunday night.

Jean Quan has been in office for 22 days and she's up to 9 murders since taking command.

Quan's Death Count: 9
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 149.31 [Revised from 162.22]

[62-year-old man killed in Sunday night assault in West Oakland]

2003 Statistical Report

2011-01-24T02:55:00.000-08:00

We found a 2003 End of Year report, published by Lieutenant Jim Emery of the OPD, that breaks down the murder statistics based on demographics. What we found really interesting is that for year 2003, 61% of murder victims in Oakland are black males and 17% of murder victims are hispanic males. As for suspects with respect to murdering someone, 78% of the suspects are black males and 12% are hispanic males.

[When people want to talk about minorities being wrongly accused for crimes, we'll keep our collective mouths shut and let the stats do our speaking for us.]

When looking further at this document, we noticed that most murders happened between 8pm and 12-midnight on a sidewalk or a street in Oakland. Basically, the lesson learned here is don't leave your house after nightfall.

[HOMICIDE SECTION MONTHLY STATISTICAL REPORT]

NOTE: The document is hosted on docstoc.com. We found docstoc to have way too many ads and the load time for the document to be unreasonably slow. We'll try to find a better link for the above document.

Urban Dictionary

2011-01-24T01:54:00.000-08:00

Seeing that there is nothing particularly newsworthy about Oakland (except for some OUSD "police" killing someone) we decided to go to UrbanDictionary.com to look up Oakland. Out of all the definitions we found about our great city, we think this one is probably the best [November 19, 2006]:

My home town. Once, a beautiful city surrounding the jewel of Lake Merritt. It was the birthplace of Casper's Hot Dogs.

Now, it has been taken over by punks.

The birthplace of the Symbionese Liberation Army in 1973.

The birthplace of Ebonics. Sissified white liberals invented the term Ebonics to define and justify the ignorant mush-mouth jabbering of the Oakland black. The purpose, of course, was to keep Oakland blacks "in their place" by preventing them from getting higher education or a decent job. Blacks "in their place" vote for mush wimp liberals and entitlements.

The birthplace of the sideshow, in which thugs and punks take over one or more city blocks and show off their cars and kill any white paddies that wander into the area.

The city with the largest collection of Bull Dykes, Diesel Dykes, Butches, and Femmes per capita in the USA.

White Liberals love Oakland because it is the perfect example of what happens when dysfunctional Black Culture runs its course unimpeded. It has produced a desperately destructive environment. The heartbroken citizens there vote for white liberals so they can get entitlements. But White Liberals are too sissy to live in Oakland. Even Jerry Brown is leaving, along with the Oakland A's.

Example: Ashurbanipal Jones went to Oakland to cut some honkies and see a sideshow. But on the way he got his sorry ass beat up by some Dykes on Bikes.

Death Count

2011-01-21T02:48:00.000-08:00

The number of murders taking place in Oakland is happening at such an alarming rate we've realized we're going to run out of pictures to post with the "Death Count" updates.

Quan's Death Count: 8
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 162.22 [Revised from 170.33]

[Man shot and killed in West Oakland as toddler daughter plays nearby]

Politburo of the Communist Party of Oakland

2011-01-20T04:52:00.000-08:00

Jean Quan is the Mayor of Oakland. We thought about this a bit, and asked ourselves, is Jean Quan actually smart enough to get herself elected? The answer always comes back as "no." Sure, she was elected via Rank Choice Voting (and, so far, we're not going to dispute that fact only because we know that the voting population of Oakland is comprised of absolute idiots); but every time we read comments coming from Jean Quan, or watch Jean Quan being interviewed, we cannot help ourselves but to ask: How the hell did Jean Quan get elected as Mayor of Oakland?

What we realized about Jean Quan is that she is completely disassociated from reality. When viewing Jean Quan from this perspective, we were able to figure out that Jean's lawyer friend Daniel M. Siegel basically ran her political campaign for her. This explains why, according to Chip Johnson, Siegel is now being appointed to a position where he can run the show over the Oakland Police Department and represent the Mayor: "Quan will appoint Dan Siegel, a criminal defense lawyer and political ally, to a position that will allow him to consult with the city's Police Department."

Chip Johnson's comment is extremely important because Siegel legally cannot represent the Mayor's office. The Oakland City Attorney, John Russo, is the only entity that can provide legal council to Mayor Quan. In fact, if Daniel M. Siegel even attempts to represent himself as an official for the City of Oakland in any capacity, John Russo can have Siegel disbarred.

Quan and Siegel clearly don't understand how the Mayor's office of Oakland works. Jean Quan and Dan Siegel are clearly assuming that their office and role in Oakland is akin to the Chinese Politburo: That is, they have absolute power over everything and everyone and will dictate all terms and conditions in Oakland; be it government or non-government entities (that is, the residence of Oakland). The sad truth is that the Mayor of Oakland, that is Jean Quan, has absolutely no power to do anything. There is absolutely no such thing as a "Strong Mayor" as Quan or Siegel may think; the Oakland City Council more or less runs Oakland, Quan is merely a figurehead. If Quan/Siegel want to get anything done within Oakland, they need to build alliances within the City Council: But so far, they are showing their 1960s U.C. Berkeley immaturity by alienating themselves.

We hope that Jean enjoyed her dinner with Hu Jintao and Obama.

Death Count

2011-01-18T01:22:00.000-08:00

Only 15 days in office and there are two more murders under Queen Quan's watch in Oakland.

Although the forecasting model is showing a decline in projected murders, the projection is still astronomically high when compared to the 95 or so murders for 2010.

Quan's Death Count: 7
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 170.33 [Revised from 202.77]

[Man killed, three others hurt in separate Oakland shootings]
[Teenager shot to death outside Oakland church]

Still Dysfunctional

2011-01-18T01:02:00.000-08:00

So Anthony Batts decided to get the hell out of Oakland while the getting was good. We don't blame him. Although it's not official that he is going to go to be San Jose's Chief of Police, the only reason for him to allow this information to be leaked to the media is because he will be going to the SJPD. It's really unfortunate for the Oakland Police Department for Batts to be leaving, simply because he was a breath of fresh air for a department that is just continuously beat up; either from Judge Henderson and the NSA, the residents of Oakland, or Oakland's elected politicians.

Currently, no media outlets are running the true reason for Anthony to want to leave Oakland and work for San Jose, but our collective guesses are as follows: 1) Oakland sucks; 2) He's given no support from the City Council (laying off 80 cops doesn't help you do your job); 3) When Jean Quan announced her campaign to run for Mayor of Oakland, Batts realized he needed to get a new job, so he went job hunting and kept his potential transfer to SJPD quiet until after the elections, once he had a chance to meet and work with Jean Quan, he realized that there is no way he wanted to be around her and therefore announced his new employment situation: After all, when Jean Quan is going to appoint a police hating lawyer to "consult" with OPD, things are not going end well. Those are the three ideas we've come up with; we suspect reason number three is probably the most accurate.

If Batts does leave Oakland, which he will, it will be really interesting to see what Jean Quan and Dan Siegel come up with as his replacement. As we've said in the past, expect things to get worse for Oakland, not better.

[Oakland will suffer setback if police chief leaves]
[Police chief's San Jose interview surprises Oakland]

The Three Amigos

2011-01-14T04:02:00.000-08:00

So the three idiots that did 24, or more, home-invasion robberies in Oakland were finnally all arrested. [One could argue that they weren't doing this for the money, but rather the psycho-sexual orgasmic thrill of pointing a gun at someone's head.]

As the details of their misdeeds are all over local media, we thought that it would be great to show our reader(s) what the three knuckleheads are charged with.

Our first contestant is Romier Laroun Simmons. He's being charged with armed robbery, attempted arm robbery, assault with a deadly weapon, assault with a deadly weapon other than firearm, entering a building with intent to commit a felony, felon in possession of a firearm, home invasion robbery.... blah blah blah. Yeah, you get the idea. But what we find really interesting is that Romier was arrested on a warrant back in September 3, 2010 for assault, breaking and entering, and harboring a known felon from arrest. What we want to know is why he was released from jail from his September 3, 2010 arrest? Anyway, he was re-arrested on November 23, 2010 for the 24 or more home-invasion robberies.

Our second contestant is Christopher Malbrough. Christopher was arrested on December 4, 2010 for his involvement in the home-invasion robberies (BTW, his buddy was arrested back in November, so we're going to take a wild guess that Romier snitched on his homie Chris). Anyway, it looks like Chris is a felon, so in addition to his charges of armed robbery, home invasion, and assault, he is also being charged with a felon in possession of a fire arm, and, because Chis is on parole, it looks like he has been additionally charged with a parole violation, so he's probably headed back to state prison.

Our third and final contestant is the lovely Kyra Bayless. She is being charged with felony home-invasion and second degree armed robbery. Kyra was arrested at the North County Jail on January 7, 2011 when she went to visit her BFF Christopher. Yeah, we can only take a wild guess and assume that Chris snitched on her.

[Two men charged in Oakland home invasion robbery spree]

[3 charged with terror-inducing Oakland robberies]

Get Your Drink On

2011-01-14T02:34:00.000-08:00

Looks like we were correct in our previous post about Oakland City Council Memeber Ignacio De La Borracho and his DUI charge when we asked "Is the CHP going to suddenly find out that the DUI tests that were conducted were actually faulty, and that the Alameda County DA's office will drop all charges?" The DA's office has dropped all DUI charges against Iggy, claiming that they don't have enough evidence to charge him with a DUI. We guess that the memo that Iggy sent out to the OPD about not having DUI check points in his district also made it to the County's DA office; that would be the only reason for the DA to claim a field sobriety test wouldn't hold up in court.

Basically, we're starting to think that if we're gonna go out bar-crawling, we need to bring Iggy with us as the designated driver. Sure, he'll be drinking along with us, but at least we know we can all get back to our respective houses without issue.

[Arrested Oakland councilman won't face DUI charge]

Death Count

2011-01-12T05:15:00.000-08:00

Wow, letting Jean Quan take over Oakland sure has lead to a massive killing spree.

So far she's been in office for nine days and there are five homicides under her watch. Once again our proprietary forecasting model is showing that Quan will be an over-achiever by have more murders in her first year as mayor than any mayor in the past.

Quan's Death Count: 5
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count: 202.77 [Revised from 243.33]

[Oakland man, 29, identified as shooting victim]

Haters Gonna Hate

2011-01-12T05:03:00.000-08:00

We got our first piece of fan mail in the comment section of our posting of "An Example of Bad Journalism." As much as we really weren't in the mood to comment on comments, we couldn't let this one escape without comment. A bit of background first: In a very small and passing sentence, we stated that we were told that Jean Quan's daughter went to Hayward High and had no friends. Not a big deal from our point-of-view. And so we get the following comment [Notice how the first statement that the commentator makes is to defend Quan's daughter, Lailan Huen. We're starting to suspect that this comment was written by Lailan, or one of her very close friends]:

"if you're interested in good journalism, get your facts straight.

lailan, jean's daughter, went to skyline high school in oakland, and was elected vice president of the school, with quite a few friends."

No need to get your panties in a bunch, it was some stoner that told us Jean Quan's daughter went to Hayward High. But when we checked again with him about her name, he thought Quan's daughter was named Monica Quan, so clearly he was thinking of someone else [he also told us that Monica wrecked the curve for everyone]. Anyway, we made our correction by striking that section out.

The commenter goes on:

"jean consistently asked the hard questions about OUSD's budget while on the school board, but the administrators didn't listen."

What the hell does asking hard questions have to do with anything? The role of OUSD Board members is to not ask questions, but to create and form a strategic vision for the district that the Superintend must execute: "[T]he Superintendent shall implement all Board decisions and manage the schools in accordance with law and Board policies." Quan was on the finance commitee for OUSD and she absolutely helped to engineer its financial ruin. A reinterpretation of history by the above comment about Jean Quan's role on the OUSD Board only makes Jean look more like an idiot and absolutely not ready for prime-time.

And finally, the commenter concludes with:

"rumors, lies and haters don't build anything; while you hate and spread lies, most of us oaklanders are creating positive change."

First, we don't hate, we don't lie, and we do spread rumors. Second, in your defense of Quan you are doing exactly what you accuse us of doing: Hating us for writing about the real Jean Quan; lying to us about her role on destroying Oakland Unified; spreading rumors that Jean Quan actually asked a question. Third, the only positive change Oaklanders are doing is killing one-another off: Now that is change we can believe in!

Death Count

2011-01-09T01:38:00.000-08:00

The gift of Quan keeps on giving. Two more people killed in Oakland on Saturday evening.

Using our proprietary forecasting model, Quan is on track to set a new record for murders in Oakland.

Quan's Death Count: 4
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count : 243.33 [revised from 182.5]

[Two killed in separate Oakland shootings]

Measure Y - More Detail

2011-01-09T01:28:00.000-08:00

In our post the other day when we took a very brief look at murder statistics in Oakland, we touched upon the success (or lack thereof) of Oakland's Measure Y. Basically, Measure Y is a parcel tax that is suppose to prevent violence by funding violence prevention programs, staffing 63 community police officers, and provide employment for firefighters (clearly the firefighters union lobby gets an A+ for scoring this additional funding). We should also note that Jean Quan states that she is the author of Measure Y, which probably explains why M-Y is an absolute failure.

When the Oakland City Auditor conducted their 2009 audit of the Measure Y violence prevention programs, they found the following [Note: DHS = Oakland's Department of Human Services]:

• The grantees we sampled did not meet required contract deliverables
in at least one of the four quarters in fiscal year 2007-08.

• DHS paid grantees the full contract amount despite deliverables not
being met and without sufficiently documenting the reason for full
payment.

• On the day of our site visit, 70% of the students currently enrolled in
one of the Measure Y Programs were not present.

• During our review, a grantee could not provide eligibility
documentation for 58% of the participants, or 23 out of the 40
participants.

• DHS does not require sub-grantee monitoring by DHS staff; instead
this responsibility is assigned to the grantee, which is the lead agency
and is reviewed as part of DHS’ site visit of the lead agency.

• During our review of grant monitor files, we could not verify the level
of monitoring that DHS performed due to DHS’ lack of
documentation in the grant files.

• Several Site Visit Checklists were incomplete and there was no
evidence that a supervisor had reviewed the checklist to ensure a
proper site visit had been conducted or had occurred.

• One grantee received funding for salary costs for a position that was
not filled. In addition, two grantees charged various items to the grant
that were not approved in the contract.

The above should not surprise anyone that has any sort of understanding of the basic workings of Oakland. Yet, at the same time, the Department of Human Services, that runs Measure Y, continues to boast of how successful they are at making Oakland safer by providing violence prevention programs.

It is at this point that we are going to go into a more detailed look at the "success" of Measure Y by employing a few statistical examples to show how Measure Y has failed to deliver a decrease in violence.

One of the things we will acknowledge is that we are using murder as a proxy for violent crime. The first reason for doing this is because data on violent crime provided by the OPD and the FBI UCR for the year 2009 do not correctly match up, we have no idea who to believe. The second reason is that end of year murders for 2010 are available through multiply sources, so this provides us a complete data set [where as the FBI and the OPD do not have their data sets (or complete data sets) available for 2010 violent crimes.] The third and final reason for using murder as a proxy for overall violence is because murder is the ultimate extension of a violent culture.

So then, in our other post about murder and statistics, we showed the following image, which is a point biserial correlation of murders from before the passage of Measure Y and after the passage of Measure Y: That is, basically comparing the number of murders from 1999 to 2004 (the X=0 data) against the murders from 2005 to 2010 (the X=1 data). If there were to be a statistically significant reduction in murders from 2005 to 2010, if M-Y were to be a success, we would expect to see a result closer to negative one (Rpb = -1.00), instead we get a result of Rpb = +0.58.

We'll now present an extreme example: Let's assume that the passage of Measure Y worked to reduce murder in Oakland to the point where starting in 2005 and ending in 2010 there were no murders. The X=0 murders will still be the same, but the X=1 data will now be all zeros. The result is that the Rpb is -0.96; extremely close to -1.0. If this were true, it would mean that Measure Y had a significant effect on the number of murders and was therefore successful.

The next example is just another extreme, no murders before the passage of M-Y, and the real number of murders after the passage of M-Y. The result is an Rpb of +0.98, extremely close to +1.0. If this example were true, it would mean Measure Y had a significant result on an increase murders.

When using real murder numbers for Oakland from 1999 to 2010, the point biserial correlation result is +0.58; and when comparing it to the extreme example of no murders for 2005 to 2010, yielding a result of -0.96: It can be safely assumed that the passage of Measure Y has had no effect what-so-ever on the number of murders in Oakland. Anyone that says M-Y is a success is either an idiot or a liar.

Death Count

2011-01-06T19:55:00.000-08:00

[Jean, you really are an awesome person, keep up the good work]

After being Mayor of Oakland for a whole four days, Jean Quan now has murder number two on her hands. Last year at this time, there were no murders At this rate, Jean Quan will have 182.5 murders for her first year as mayor. We're going to guess that her mantra of "block-by-block" was just some strange euphemism for murder, you know, "Block-by-block the streets were littered with dead bodies."

Quan's Death Count: 2
Quan's Projected First Year Murder Count : 182.5

[1 dead, 1 wounded in Oakland shootings]

We Laughed, We Lost

2011-01-05T05:57:00.000-08:00

Yes, Jean, that's correct: We laughed when we heard your violence and crime prevention ideas failed in less than 48 hours, that's why we lost the game. BTW, welcome to Oakland.

Jean, after only 31 hours as Mayor of Oakland, it looks like you have Oakland's first homicide on your scorecard, and as far as we at Oakland Sucks are concerned, his blood is on your hands

After all, when you were on the Oakland City Council, you voted in favor to layoff 80 OPD cops. And let's not forgot that you protested against "The Man" during that Oscar Grant riot thing that you probably helped to sponsor.

BTW Jean, don't you find it really funny that you are now "The Man?" Who are you going to protest against/blame? Yourself? H.M.M.M.M.M.

Oh, and let's not forget, Jean, that you are now also responsible for that shootout that happened on 88th and 89th that left six people filled with more lead than they previously planned for.

Basically Jean, what are you going to do to reduce Oakland's murder rate and violent crimes? So far, YTD, there are 2 murders in Oakland, one under your watch, and one "technically" under Cotton Head's watch. Last year at this time there were no murders in Oakland. "Block by Block" won't save your idiotic ideas on crime reduction.

[West Oakland shooting becomes city's second slaying of the new year]

[Six Injured In East Oakland Shooting Rampage]

Statistics

2011-01-03T02:22:00.000-08:00

With basically every media outlet in the Bay Area telling their viewers that crime is down in the City of Oakland, we thought we'd dust off the old statistics textbook and do our own number crunching. Sure, one could argue that from 2009 to 2010, the number of murders has decreased from 104 to 95, respectively, but is that actually statistically significant? And, further more, does a decrease in the number of YoY murders actually mean that crime is dropping? Or, could it be that the trauma surgeons at Highland Hospital are just getting really good at treating gunshot victims? Yet still, some have argued that the passage of Measure-Y has had a profound effect on the reduction of violent crime in Oakland; but is that really the case?

So then, without further ado, we present some graphs and some explanations on how to interpret them:

The first is just a simple time series showing the number of YoY murders in Oakland from 1969 to 2010.

So clearly during the past four years, crime is decreasing, correct? Well, not really. Here's another graph of the same time series data this time showing a trend line (the blue triangles) and a five year forecast (the red diamonds). The blue trend line for the number of murders in Oakland YoY is clearly increasing. Just because a few years shows a decrease in murders does not mean that that decrease is statistically significant, nor does it mean there is an overall trend for a reduction in murders. Is the red line five year forecast accurate? Probably not, but the statistical model still indicates that there will be an increase in murders for the next five years. [Note: The model used for generating the forecast is an exponential growth function; and time t=0 is the year 1969.]

The next graph is an x-bar chart and is mainly used in quality management applications, usually to see if a processes is within its normal range. So, why not see about using an x-bar chart for murders in Oakland; assuming of course that the process that Oakland generates is murder. The average number or murders per year in Oakland starting from 1969 and ending in 2010 is 106.8. The upper control limit (UCL) and lower control limit (LCL) are basically three standard deviations away from the mean: If murder rises above the UCL or falls below the LCL, the "process" of murder is out of control (actually, seeing murder below the LCL would be a good thing). What this graph shows is that under Mayor Brown and Mayor Dellums, murder in Oakland stayed within its normal/historical bound (we only mention this because race-based commentators seem to want to compare Jerry and Ron). What this graph also shows is that in the years 1991, 1992, and 1993, the number of murders in Oakland were out of control; BTW, the mayor during the time was Elihu Harris, although we wouldn't be surprised if the policies of previous mayor, Lionel Wilson, had anything to do with murders shooting above the UCL. [Note: Time t=0 is the year 1969.]

The next and last thing to take a look at is the effectiveness of Measure-Y and its promise of violence reduction. The only real test that we could think of on how to measure Measure-Y was to use a Point Biserial Correlation. Basically, we're comparing the number of murders per year for the years 1999 to 2004 against the number of murders per year from 2005 to 2010. The reason for doing it this way is that Measure-Y taxation began in 2005, so we're simply looking at years before the taxation and years after the taxation. The point biseial correlation result, or Rpb, is +0.58, meaning that there is no real correlation between Measure-Y and a reduction in murders. For there to be a meaningful correlation that Measure-Y worked to reduce violence in Oakland, an Rpb of -1.00 would be expected. In fact, what's really interesting is how the passage of Measure-Y generated a positive correlation, we would actually expect it to be negative.

As for the subject of overall crime, sans murder, things becomes a bit more difficult. The definitions of "violent crime" change over time, meaning that violent crime data could show a reduction simply because what constitutes a violent crime is re-categorized as a non-violent crime. Furthermore, OPD admits that "1995 crime statistics are not available due to a change in the Records Management System [with the exception of murder]." It is also interesting to note that the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports start in 1995, yet Oakland, California crime data is not available in the FBI UCR. What this all means is that trying to run any sort of long-run analysis on something like auto theft or felony assault becomes slightly more difficult because a different method of statistics will have to be employed in order to fill in the missing 1995 crime data. It's not impossible, but it just creates the possibility for statistical error. One of these days we'll get around to compiling a usable database.

An Example of Bad Journalism

2010-12-30T04:00:00.000-08:00

We've never really paid much attention to Oakland Tribune's Cecily Burt, but we're starting to notice a theme about her: She loves her some Jean Quan. The last puff-piece penned by Cecily that we commented on we assumed was just bad journalism, but two extremely pro-Quan pieces by the same author is rather interesting. Cecily is sucking the Quan teat so hard that we're starting to think that something is afoot with Cecily and the Quan administration, or, for some rather strange reason the Oakland Tribune [Bay Area News Group] is getting real cozy with Jean. Another interesting question that needs to be asked (and for that matter, answered) is why Cecily's articles are categorized as news, and not op-ed or opinion or fiction?

Anyway, in Cecily's current historical fiction article, she basically tells everyone why Jean Quan's life was so hard: People teased Jean when she was in school, Jean's father died, Jean had to actually get a job to earn income. Oh cry us a fucking river already! We've all been there. It's called part of growing up, something that Jean has yet to actually do.

Then, after years of being treated like any other kid, Quan turns into some 1960s radical at U.C. Berkeley and decides to take on "The Man" [does anyone else notice the irony that Jean Quan is now "The Man"?]. So she goes around Oakland and Berkeley helping out, what could be easily describe by today's standards as "terrorist groups," radical ethnic causes. Clearly her line of thought is the following: In order to make things better for everyone, let's create tension through division on ethnic lines, because obviously, Balkanization will yield beneficial results. Yeah, how is that working out... not so well, is it? We'll take a wild guess and assume that Jean didn't learn a thing from her ~~years~~ semester at U.C. Berkeley and will continue to push identity politics upon the people of Oakland while she is mayor. In fact, we're so sure of her doing this that we are going to make a prediction: Things are only going to get worse for Oakland once she is sworn in as mayor.

What we find really funny in Burt's article is how she quotes one of Jean's BFFs, Carolyn Reuben, as describing Jean: "She's like Abe Lincoln...". Last time we checked, Honest Abe so was so insistent upon a strong government to crack down on any sort of deviation from his ideals that a lot of people kinda-sorta just didn't like him anymore. You know, we're just pointing out the obvious that The Reuben obviously missed.

Cecily goes on to show that Jean Quan basically employed her children as slave labor when she ran for the OUSD board in 1990, "... [T]he Oakland Tribune called 12-year-old William Huen 'Jean Quan's secret weapon.' The youngster, a 7th grader at Montera Middle School, had pedalled his bike to all 16,000 homes in hilly District 4 to deliver a copy of his personal appeal. Lailan, then 8, helped by licking stamps." So basically her kids, in addition to going to school, doing homework, and getting minimal sleep, were forced to work for free to get Queen Jean elected. Oh poor Bill and Lailan, a narcissistic mother must have created quite a few problems for the two of you. [~~As a side note, we were told that Jean's daughter, Lailan, went to Hayward High, and was extremely quiet and had no friends. You know, we're just saying...~~]

The only negative that Cecily Burt writes about Jean Quan is that, "As board president in 1996, she voted to recognize Ebonics, or black English, as a language to help underachieving black students. The action did not require teachers to teach anything other than standard English, but it sparked a national furor that made headlines around the country, and the Oakland school board a laughingstock." Really Cecily? That's all you could come up with? How about that fact that Jean was the head of the OUSD Finance Committee and drove Oakland Unified into such financial ruin that the State of California had to take over the district? Come on Cecily, you're not even trying are you?

Finally, Cecily concludes with a statement from Quan's attorney and friend, Dan Siegel: "I think it's great that we have a mayor who wants to be mayor, and she's the first one who really will be a strong mayor." Hey Dan, just to let you know, there is no such thing as a "strong mayor" for the City of Oakland; the City Charter doesn't allow it. Oh yeah, we forgot to mention to Carolyn Reuben, how is Jean going to be like Abe Lincoln when the Charter won't allow it?

Anyhoo, we'll wait for Cecily's next article about Jean and see if it's more balanced. Until that time, Cecily will be a journalistic hack.

Pro-Tip: Cecily, layoff the psychotropics when writing your articles.

[Humble beginnings shaped Jean Quan into a tireless champion for underserved]

Guest Post: Oakland Police Office's Association

2010-12-25T06:06:00.000-08:00

The Oakland Police Officer's Association issued the following press release because of Jean Quan more or less saying in an article published by the Oakland Tribune that Oakland Police Officers don't like Oakland.

OPOA admit Police distrust City Leaders

Just when I thought I had heard it all from Oakland Politicians, I’m surprised again. This week, in the Oakland Tribune, Mayor-Elect Jean Quan was quoted as saying; “That 85% of the city's current [Police] officers “don't like” the city.” Of the many comments from Oakland politicians I have heard and read over the past few years, none have offended me as much as this one. According to Mayor Elect Quan, the majority of the officers who are on duty as you read this, “don’t like” Oakland . Officers, who are daily risking their lives for the citizens of Oakland , “don’t like” Oakland . Oakland Police Officers who are responding right now to one of the 300,000 911 calls for service each year, “don’t like” Oakland . The Oakland Police Officer who comforts a crime victim in the most dangerous city in the state, “doesn’t like” the city? Mayor–Elect Quan, nothing could be further from the truth! Ms Quan, the Police Department over which you are about to preside is populated by the most decent, honorable, and hardworking civil servants in the nation. Contrary to your belief, Oakland Police Officers love Oakland .

Those who join the Oakland Police Department are fully aware that it is a difficult and dangerous job. They know that they may have to make the ultimate sacrifice for the citizens of Oakland . Oakland Police Officers are reminded of that every day on their way to work, as they walk by a wall lined with the names of Oakland Police Officers who lost their lives in the line of duty. In viewing such sacrifice, and the vocation and dedication with which Oakland Police Officers approach their jobs, how could anyone say that Oakland Police Officers “don’t like” Oakland ? Mayor–Elect Quan, you are wrong about the men and women wearing the Oakland Police uniform. Perhaps you should seek to become better informed before taking over as the city’s CEO. And, by the way, where did the 85% come from?

How could any Oakland Police Officer have much regard for the city leaders that have laid-off cops in the most dangerous city west of the Mississippi River ? Trusting city leaders is difficult, when Oakland politicians blame cops for all the city’s ills. As city leaders allow the Oakland Police Department to shrink at an alarming rate, where is the concern of the city leaders for Oakland ’s citizens? In that environment, how can common sense allow anyone to trust Oakland ’s leaders?

With all the downsizing going on at OPD, the environment we work in is more dangerous than ever. Each member needs to be on alert to the dangers of short staffing. OPD is a shadow of its former self. Members need to be aware of that, as they do the best that they can for the citizens, while taking care of one another. Sadly, these sentiments do not appear to be shared by the City’s leaders.

The OPOA Board of Directors’ elections are over. Congratulations to all those elected. I was re-elected and I am honored to represent and serve the hardest working cops in America . Thank you.

The holidays are upon us. I wish you all a peaceful and safe Christmas and New Year.

Barry Donelan, Vice President

Oakland Police Officers Association

donelan@opoa.org

The article that was published in the Oakland Tribune, which caused the OPOA to issue the above response, was written by a staff member of the Bay City News Service, which owns the Oakland Tribune.

After the OPOA issued their press release, the Oakland Tribune editor, that is, Bay City News, Inc., had to issue a correction saying that Jean Quan never said OPD officers hate Oakland: "Quan said the Oakland Police Department should hire more police officers from Oakland, saying that 85 percent of the city's current officers don't live in the city and sometimes have difficulty interacting with local residents."

[Batts and Quan admit many community members distrust the Oakland police]

Guest Post: Oaklanders

2010-12-25T05:07:00.000-08:00

In this issue of the OaklandSucks Guest Post, we bring you three guest posts from three Oakland residents. They all provide different stories of of living in Oakland, yet it's the same story that they provide:

~~------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~

Hi everyone -
We awoke this morning to an unfortunate incident where someone threw a paint thinner soaked paper towel on my husband's car and completely stripped the paint in multiple places. Has anyone else had this happen? A really malicious act that is hard to believe. We are logging it with OPD, so it would be good to know if others suffered the same fate.

~~------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~

This evening my neighbors on Fleming near Courtland were expecting visiting friends. The friends arrived around 8pm. An armed robber came from a car parked in front of them and held a gun to the woman's head. She was holding a child and her purse. Of course she surrendered her purse. The police have been called. No other details have been provided. No description of the robber or the get away car.

~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~

It's been a great 8 years but I just can't keep up the fight any longer. We've bought a house, started a business, started a family, shopped locally as much as possible. We've made friends with our neighbors but yet, I just can't shake that eery feeling that "something" is about to go down in my 'hood.

With 3 murders within 3 blocks of my house in 3 months, I no longer feel safe being outside of my house. I fear going to the grocery store after dark. My 80 year old neighbor was knocked down and mugged at 12noon, the 3 neighbors who hang out in their front yard were held up at gunpoint, we've been mugged, others held up in their vehicles. I can't let my toddler learn to walk on our sidewalks for fear of being held up, in the middle of the day.

I'll miss the awesome restaurants. I'll miss our awesome neighbors. I'll miss the farmers markets and the lake. I'll miss the awesome weather. I'll miss our awesome postal carrier. I'll even miss rooting for the under dog.

Thanks to all those that keep up the fight. I'm tapping out. Someday, Oakland, someday.

Get Your Drunk On

2010-12-25T03:06:00.000-08:00

Yeah, we know that in the 12-hour news cycle of modern journalism, it's old news that Oakland City Council member Ignacio De La Borracho is living up to his full stereotypical potential by driving drunk and being arrested by the CHP on a DUI charge. But, we just couldn't resist some Christmas schadenfreude when we heard about this happening to Councilman La Borracha. We suspect that this isn't the first time that Iggy chose to drive drunk, nor will it be his last (you know, the whole stereotype thing he's got going for him).

What we thought was really funny was that KRON 4's Craig Sklar went to De La Borracho's house and some illegal immigrant maid answered the door and basically told Craig: "No, meester Borracho no here."

One of the contributors to this blog had to remind the rest of us that Councilman Ignacio asked/told the Oakland Police Department to not setup DUI checkpoints in his district. He probably gave them a reason why, but we'll just assume it's because all of his constituents are all drunken stereotypes such as himself. We have no idea what the OPD response to his request was, but we are absolutely certain CHP didn't get the memo.

Also, if you really want to understand what life is like in the La Borracha household, just remember that Iggy's son was arrest and "sentenced to fourteen years in prison for the rape of three women, and a 15-year old girl." We're sure that Iggy Jr. didn't suddenly wake up one day and say to himself, "Self, I wanna rape me some women!" but rather that there is a serious chaotic environment within that house.

Anyhoo, we're really curious what the legal system will do to an Oakland politician. Is the CHP going to suddenly find out that the DUI tests that were conducted were actually faulty, and that the Alameda County DA's office will drop all charges? Or is The Ig going to have to pony-up for a good lawyer and beat the DUI charge that way?

[Councilman De La Fuente arrested, suspected of DUI]

Guest Post: Jay Crawford

2010-12-18T05:13:00.000-08:00

Seeing that everyone that loves Mayor Cotton Head is trying to find reasons to show that his four years in office was beneficial for The Oakland because of a reduction in crime [Pro-tip: There was no reduction in crime], we decided to post an article that looks at crime statistics from a police perspective. Former OPD officer Jay Crawford pretty much spells out what one needs to know when dealing with criminal statistic methodology:

Before I retired one of my jobs was to supervise the Crime Analysis Unit of the Oakland Police Department. We did the best job that we could to discern crime trends but there are vital facts that people must remember when looking at crime trend statistics.

First, it is normal for percentages to fluctuate and unless the figures go beyond normal variances, changes over short periods of time do not mean much. A change within the normal fluctuations may mean something if it is sustained for a long period of time but short term changes within normal variance must be viewed with a grain of salt.

Comparing statistics day to day, month to month, or even single year to single year are examinations of short periods of time. They are useful to a department that is trying to deploy scarce resources, but they are not indications that a city is suddenly either safer or more dangerous than it was a few months before. The value of the Uniform Crime Reporting numbers comes from the fact that they cover decades and decades of data.

Also, statistics do not prove cause and effect. They may show that there are apparent correlations, but that is not the same as cause and effect. Consider an extreme example. Imagine a lonely stretch of road through the desert. Once in a while there is a reported accident and the police are called, but otherwise, the road is not patrolled. Merely looking at the number of citations (0) and the number of "reported" accidents, the road might appear to be safe.

Now Officer Johnson is assigned to patrol that stretch of road. He issues three citations for speeding and four warnings in a week. During the same week he finds three people who have fallen asleep at the wheel, run off the road and into the ditch. The reported statistics for that week would be three citations for speeding and three accidents.

The following week the three people who were cited have slowed down, but the four people who were merely warned are still speeding down that stretch of road, so Officer Johnson cites them. Officer Johnson finds two cars in the ditch because drivers fell asleep at the wheel. The reported statistics for that week would be four citations for speeding and two accidents.

Is crime up or down? Is the road safer or more dangerous? If Officer Johnson is reassigned and not replaced, will the road be safer or more dangerous? Will crime be up or down?

Now this is pretty simplistic but, Oakland cut 80 officers this year. Will the crime statistics for 2010 be up or down?

Jay

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

2010-12-17T06:30:00.000-08:00

We'll assume that Robert Gammon over at the East Bay Express simply made a few minor mistakes, and is not a statistician, when he decided to use the OPD crime statistics web-page to explain to us, the proletariat, of why former party leader Mayor Cotton Head was a far superior mayor of Oakland than that of Mayor Moonbeam, when he wrote his article "Crime Dropped Significantly Under Ron Dellums." [It would be wrong of us to accuse him of cherry-picking his data and only presenting statistical information that would advance his political ideology upon the masses, which is why we are not going to accuse him of using selective statistics]:

"Through November 28, homicides were down in Oakland by 19 percent year-to-date compared to 2009. There were 77 homicides through November 28, compared to 95 over the same time period last year, according to police department statistics. Homicides also have plummeted 31 percent since Dellums' first year in office. In 2007, there were 111 homicides through the end of November of that year."

Rob Gammon claims that homicides decreased by 31%, but this is absolutely wrong. Homicides decreased by 20.8% for Cotton Head's first year as mayor of Oakland, not 31% as Robert Gammon claims. [Actually, when we went back through Gammon's data-sets and found his faulty mathematics, the absolutely wrong percentage change that he proposed/stated was actually 30.6%, not the 31% that he claimed.]

Here's why:

What The Rob fails to explain is that he is mixing an End-Of-Year report [EOY] with Year-To-Date data [YTD]. This is a big no-no when it comes to playing with crime statistics. Bob used two different sets of data. To achieve a 30.6% decrease in homicides, he used 2006 EOY homicide numbers with 2007 YTD numbers [November 28, 2007 to be exact]. What The Gammon should have used was 2006 and 2007 EOY homicide data. Seeing that both 2006 and 2007 homicide data was available to The Gam-Man, we'll assume he simply made a mistake, and wasn't trying to lie.

Gammon continues:

"If this month is much like the rest of 2010, then homicides are on track to have dropped by a staggering 42 percent since Jerry Brown's last year as mayor in 2006. That year, Oakland endured 145 killings. This year, Oakland was on pace to finish with 84. If someone had told you four years ago that homicides would decline by more than 40 percent and some would consider Dellums' term a failure, you probably would have thought that person was crazy."

Yes that is correct, in 2006, The Dysfunctional Oakland had 145 murders, but what The Gam doesn't mention is that in 2005 Oakland had 93 murders, and in 2004 Oakland had 82 murders. The fact that murders in Oakland skyrocketed in 2006 indicates that serious exogenous variables came into play beyond what the OPD was expecting. Furthermore, Oakland is currently sitting at 83 murders, only two more weeks to go before EOY: We know that The Oakland can easily make 90 murders for the year.

Seeing that The Gam wants to play with statistics to help out his party-leader-friend Cotton Head, we'll leave Bob with the following information:

Average number of murders per year for Mayor Moonbeam: 95.215

Average number of murders per year for Mayor Cotton Head: 104.75*

*Because of the way OPD releases crime statistic data, this number is actually wrong. OPD has yet to release compiled data for the year 2009 and the year 2010. We expect the 104.75 homicides per year to increase once OPD gets around to providing the citizens of Oakland with a true End-of-Year data-set.

[Hey Chief Batts, you said you wanted transparency, how about giving your community the data that they need to provide real statistics to the people of Oakland, so that way political hacks don't have to come up with Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.]

BTW: We're still not done with looking at Robert Gammon's article and his fast and loose use of statistics for violent crime and rape. Expect our next article to deal with those topics.

Paying Taxes

2010-12-15T01:19:00.000-08:00

You know how Oakland has a huge budget problem because the city cannot generate enough revenue via its tax-base? Well, we think we just figured out a way for Oakland to easily recover a quarter of its lost revenue for the year: Get Council Member Desley Brooks to pay her taxes. So far we've counted 20 liens filed against her from Oakland's Finance Department going as far back as May 2005.

Just to be on the safe side, we cross-referenced several databases to make sure that the Desley Brooks that doesn't pay her taxes in the City of Oakland is in fact The Oakland City Council Member Desley Brooks.

Yup, they are one in the same: There is only one Desley Brooks that lives in Oakland that doesn't bother to pay her Oakland city taxes.

There are several other monetary and tax-related issues regarding Desley that caught our attention and we'll write something about those issues when time permits.

At this point, Queen Jean is looking like a superstar for only having three Oakland Finance Department liens filed against her!

Finances

2010-12-14T20:47:00.000-08:00

Looks like The Quanster and her husband Floyd don't like paying their bills. They have at least three lien notices filed against them from Oakland's Finance Department, dated 12/08/2010, 11/06/2007, and 5/09/2005. From what we can tell there is no release of lien filed by the City, so basically Quan and her family have no intention of paying their debts.

We were actually to lazy to go to the County Clerk-Recorder's Office to look at copies of the liens, but we're sure that a more detailed search for Jean Quan at the Recorder's Office will yield more information.

All everyone needs to know is the following: Quan helped to destroy the Oakland schools when she was head of the OUSD finance committee; she helped to destroy Oakland when she was on the City Council by once again being the head of it's finance committee; and now she is going to give Oakland it's death blow by being Mayor of Oakland.

Seriously, the woman cannot manage her personal finances, why would anyone think she could manage a multimillion dollar budget?

The attached image is from what the Record's Office has online:

Oakland's Economics

2010-12-11T06:02:00.000-08:00

We thought about this a few hours ago, and realized that the economic outlook for Oakland is rather dire. Sure, there are restaurants, bars, and clubs starting up in Oakland, with some people out there thinking that this is actually a sort of revitalization for the city. But, when you look at a major employer, such as Clorox moving 700 employees out to Pleasanton, that speaks volumes about what business actually thinks about the city of Oakland. Oakland's economic model is that of a service sector: Restaurants, drug dealing, and prostitution. This is absolutely not a viable model for future growth.

Seeing that Sorceress-elect Quan's spell worked on the people of Oakland to get her into office, will her spell-casting translate into something beneficial for Oakland? Highly unlikely. The Sorceress is absolutely soft on crime, after all, criminals are her constituents. No major business is going to start up operations or relocate to Oakland when they know that the safety of their employees is at risk because The Sorceress refuses to acknowledge that Oakland is a criminal haven.

So then, we looked at The Sorceress Quan's website for her ideas on job creation; she basically came up with two things: Local government as a major employer and "green jobs."

Okay Quan, here's the deal:

First: Local government can only employ people if it can raise enough revenue to meet salary and benefit requirements. That means increasing taxes on businesses, property owners, or household; or issuing municipal bonds. All are basically a direct or indirect tax on the people of Oakland. Doing any of the four retarded revenue generating ideas will drive people away from Oakland resulting in lower income for the city's coffers, therefore causing the city to be insolvent and forced to declare bankruptcy.

Second: WTF are "green jobs?" Seriously, how do you define what a "green job" is? We know you love your pot farms, but are pot farms seriously a green job? And if so, are the managers of pot farms actually going to hire the dysfunctional youth of Oakland as employees? Probably not. And, last time we checked, The Feds were kinda-sorta mad at The Oakland about violating federal law.

So, Sorceress Quan, what spell will you cast to eliminate a service sector of drug dealing and create a manufacturing sector for The Oakland?

[Pro-tip: Marijuana cultivation is not a manufacturing job, it's an agricultural job, and is not counted in the BLS Nonfarm Payroll employment statistic.]

Guest Post: Ron Oz

2010-12-10T04:42:00.000-08:00

Former OPD officer Ron Oz pens an article of how OPD can survive with a force of only 475 officers. Unfortunately, Jean Quan can and will use this article as ammunition for why the City Council Finance Committee and the City Administrator need to reduce funding for the OPD, while at the same time making sure that the logistics outlined in Ron's article are not implemented; therefore, creating a safe haven for the dysfunctional that the elite in The Oakland seem to desire [Anthony Batts, are you paying attention?]:

The practical and effective method to address any problem within the realm of police practices is simply "Officer Presence."

1. It is precisely "Officer Presence" that is afforded with permanent Beat Assignments. The Officers who work "regularly assigned Beats" become aware of issues and make their presence known. This is accomplished with "predictability," as students, criminals, citizens, business owners, and others find dependability of presence in police service.

2. Our OPD has drifted entirely away from the Beat System. The introduction of "12-hour shifts," "Area Command," "Fluid Response," "Limited Response," "Special Duty Teams," and the elimination of real Crime Analysis and Research and Development, and the imposition of other serious game-changers by outsiders brought in to tell OPD how to run its affairs [the NSA and outside Chiefs naive to Oakland] has so demoralized and disintegrated OPD that Officers and employees are trying desperately to do their work blindfolded with arms and legs amputated while working in an organization dysfunctionalized by constant political interference/distraction and leadership dart-throwing.

3. It is easier and much more effective to staff 35 regularly assigned Beats around the clock in three eight-hour shifts with the sworn staff we have left. This is predictability, dependability, and simple.

4. Speaking of sworn staff, during this past Mayor and Council administration the number of sworn has frenetically jumped to over 860 [834 + the Recruit Academy that was hired/fired before it started] and dropped in budget induced panic to fewer than 600 today. Last count was something like 673 sworn on the payroll [deduct at least 3 who are in the process of departure and another 73 in a state of long term injury status or merely carried on the books]. It takes over a year to get feet on the ground for new cops. Before OPD could possibly field another Academy, the estimates are that OPD will lose at least 100 seasoned Officers. This means that OPD should be planning to run an entire police department with about 475 cops. How to do this is what we need to see in a "Plan." It is nigh impossible to formulate a "Plan" without what I have recommended for over the past four years... an OPD Office of Budget and Management. We must have information, credible and meaningful - analyzed and formulated. There is absolutely no such assemblage today, and hasn't been for too long. My offer still stands, to volunteer my efforts, without pay, and to bring in other experts in Oakland and OPD affairs for the purpose of establishing such a Unit. There are solutions, specific ones, to address Oakland's needs for Police "Response" and "Investigations" with the financial cards we have been dealt.

5. Don't listen to anyone who says OPD cannot provide effective police service with the limited budget we have [another debacle to be addressed] or with a looming NSA [Judge Henderson's mandates]. It will be a challenge to be sure. As for response, we can/must staff 35 Beats [+/- depending on times] around the clock with current and projected shortfalls in manpower. Assume approximately 750,000 calls for service [before the current Chief's curtailment of many of these calls]. For simplicity, and to find "reasonableness," consider that each officer can work an average 236 days per year after deducting 129 days for days off, vacations, training and sick days. Bare bones, an OPD with 475 sworn could field about 300 for street duties. Thus, an optimum configuration [the job of Budget and Management] would be to deploy these officers such that each could expect to respond to about 11 calls per shift. Management should press to "Free" the Officers as soon as possible from each call, and since many calls are minor, or "GOA," [Gone on Arrival," or referable, it should be a target to "handle" each call within an average twenty minutes [or less] plus ten minutes travel time [or less]. Thus, theoretically, there would be around 2 hours in an eight hour shift for each Officer to eat a meal and stand by for another call. There is certainly a randomness to when the calls come in, and it is this randomness that will require statistical algorithms to formulate the "optimum" deployments. I do very well with our investments having formulated such algorithms that optimize randomness. The important thing at OPD for Oakland's citizens is to make "Beat Integrity," the precept of permanently assigned Beats, inviolate. We can formulate their optimum effectiveness for response around permanent Beat assignments. [OPD in a crisis mode could offer a win/win scenario whereby for a year or so until better times each Beat Officer and Investigators worked 10 hour shifts including two hours overtime. The overtime hours actually cost a fraction less than the hourly cost of hiring new cops and can easily be funded with budget savings from attrition, empty slots, and capital savings. Citizens would get the instant equivalent of 20% more cops in the neighborhoods. Cops would get substantial increases in their pay checks.]

Overwork is usually a sign of under-management. All six of my children were born at Kaiser Hospital where the staff is optimized to handle the large volume of work. I think I know all the Captains, most of the Lieutenants, and each of the Executive Staff [Asst. Chief and D/C's] at OPD well enough to say with confidence that they are, in the aggregate, outstanding people. They are bright and motivated, but frustrated and feeling confused and bewildered. They are in charge of confusion. They work ad hoc, disconnected, and with constant interference and distraction. Most of all they work without clear direction. They need, must have, and can have...clarity.

Also, the OPOA is a cauldrun for the disaffection, confusion and frustration pandemic throughout OPD. Arguing pay and benefits is a legitimate arena in which policy/budget makers may take on the OPOA. But, the OPOA is currently feeling as if it is trying to bail a rotting and sinking ship. The President and Vice President of the OPOA, along with the Board members and staff, are under extreme stress in dealing with policy makers who they feel are throwing Oakland citizens under the bus in matters totally unrelated to pay or benefits. Please believe that the OPOA wants first of all to represent an OPD that is respected for doing a good job in tough times. Understand that OPD has a rank and file, senior management, executive staff, and entire employee base that is in the throes of uncertainty and overworked because of dysfunctionality and distraction. Through all this is still a feeling that there are answers and solutions. There are.

As a final note, we must do something, show some initiation and measurable steps toward improvement in the conditions that are forcing unintended but debilitating de-policing at OPD. OPD personnel and Oakland citizens must see a take-charge plan.

Best wishes to all of you,

ronoz

Guest Post: cybergirl2

2010-12-09T04:21:00.000-08:00

Someone found this post on The Craigslist and sent it to us. Kinda a rambling post, but we'll leave it for our reader(s) to decide:

< cybergirl2 > 11/30 03:27:13

Heard that Mayor-elect, Jeanie Quan of Oakland was a horrible city council woman. However, she must have run a very savvy campaign in order to get elected. I heard Tom(?) [ed. wtf?] was the only decent candidate who ran, but he Came in like 3rd. The second runner up, Perata was also very lame. I also hear that Jerry Brown did not do much for Oakland except the charter schools of which one has closed down.

I heard that Quan is not open to constructive criticism or discourse. People have approached her or raised points in city council meetings in who have challenged her positions on initiatives, rightfully so, but she rejects them and basically shuts people up, very directly in that straight forward "Cantonese" style, I might add.

For example a local resident who was a forensic accountant attended a city council meeting, mentioned that Quan's plan was not feasible budget wise, but he had some solutions and wanted to discuss them. Quan dismissed his remarks because she had some $100k "study" done that supported her plan. She does not welcome public or private discourse and it she maintains a "my way or the high way". This kind of attitude is immature and demonstrates poor leadership ability, especially since she is bad at budgets and "loses" money as she has done in the past. She she is setting herself up to be a very poor mayor.

Translating Quan Speak

2010-12-08T05:01:00.000-08:00

We should have made this post five days ago, but we've been really lazy to actually do anything.

Anyway, Cecily Burt of the Oakland Tribune has a pro-Quan piece that probably requires a "What it really means" translation:

According to Cecily: "Henry Gardner, former Oakland city manager ... will serve as chair of the 24-member volunteer transition advisory committee [for Jean Quan]. [T]he committee is a diverse cross-section of Oakland's business, art, education, recreation, preservation, labor and housing interests... The Oakland East Bay Symphony ... Edward Yu, president of the Chinese American Citizens' Association [,] several community [and] neighborhood ... organizations are represented [and] Oakland police Chief Anthony Batts and retired interim fire Chief Gerald Simon..."

What it really means: Quan is going to pander to each group promissing them everything they want, and then will fail to deliver. She will of course blame each group for why she just couldn't give them what they wanted. With the exception of Batts, she'll just blame him for everything.

Quan said: "These are tough times. I may not agree with (their recommendations) but I definitely want to listen. I'm actually hopeful that some new ideas and processes will come from this."

What she really means: I really have no idea what I'm going to do as mayor of Oakland, so I seriously hope someone comes up with something good for me to use.

When looking for a city manager: " Quan said she is hoping to have someone on board by February. While it would be great to choose a woman or a person of color, she said, choosing 'the best person' is her priority."

What she really means: It will be an Asian female.

Quan Said: "I don't expect Chief Batts to go anywhere but I do plan to do a thorough review of each department to meet my goal of a new budget by early March."

What she really means: If Batts does his job of providing law enforcement for the people of Oakland, he will be replaced by someone that was as incompetent as Chief Tucker.

Prove us wrong.

[Quan reaches across the aisle to assemble a top-notch transition team]

Yeah....

2010-12-02T06:06:00.000-08:00

So then, when writing about Mayor Cotton Head and the Oakland City Council a few years ago, we got extremely bored: Picking on an invalid and the mentally challenged, respectively, was just way too easy. But now that Queen Quan is Mayor-Elect of the dysfunctional Oakland, we decided to bring the OaklandSucks blog back in action.

Speaking of the dysfunctional: Three blacks decided that it would be a really great idea to mug a Buddhist Nun over on Birdsail Ave.

Queen Quan said she is going to solve Oakland's crime problems, so we waiting for Quan to recover that Buddhist Nun's religious tokens.

Seriously Jean, where is that Buddhist Nun's ceremonial drum at?

We're waiting...